- Price dynamics
- The most interesting new buildings – 2012
- “New” Moscow
- Forecasts for the future
Summing up the results of the year is already a real, one might say unshakable tradition, and not only in our country. It is on the eve of the New Year that messages begin to appear “this year it was built, completed, mined, sold, received …”. But what can I say, all of us, one way or another, saying goodbye to the outgoing year, we begin to take stock – what we managed to do, what happened, and what will have to be done next year.
The real estate market, of course, is no exception to this tradition. After the end of such a significant period, you can compare the volume of construction this year and last year, prices for residential and commercial real estate and try to assess the prospects. So, what interesting and significant happened on the Moscow real estate market in 2012, which is leaving us? What are the forecasts of experts for the next year?
Although there were no sharp surges in real estate prices throughout 2012 in Moscow, prices are still showing a strong upward trend. The most vivid example – if at the beginning of the year the average cost of real estate in the capital was set at 162 thousand rubles per square meter, then at the end of December this figure increased to 186 thousand rubles per “square”. The difference exceeds 20 thousand rubles and is quite significant. In dollar terms, the difference between the average price for Moscow square meters at the beginning and end of the year is even more evident – $ 5.29 thousand in January and $ 6.07 thousand in December. So the landmark milestone of six thousand, the “average” square meter of housing in the capital this year, nevertheless overcame.
In terms of districts of Moscow, the situation looks like this: Arbat firmly holds the position of the leader, but the candidates for the second and third places changed almost every month during the year. As of early December 2012, the cost of one square meter on the Arbat reached 9,382 thousand dollars. Only 11 months ago, for one “square” of an apartment in the very center of the capital they asked an average of 9,033 thousand dollars, so the price increased by 1.1%.
In 2012, Kitai-Gorod, Khamovniki, Ostozhenka, Yakimanka and Tverskaya were in the top five leaders, who took turns in second and third places in the ranking of the most expensive districts of Moscow..
And if in January of this year the average cost of one square meter in none of these districts reached $ 9 thousand, then by December the price of one square meter in the Tverskoy district exceeded $ 9.09 thousand, and in Ostozhenka it came close to this figure and amounted to 8.97 thousand dollars.
Thus, the rating data indicate that the price for Moscow square meters is slowly and steadily growing. Moreover, the cost of the most inexpensive offers of “economy class” and “elite” – the most expensive square meters, increased the most..
Thus, the cost of elite residential real estate in the capital for the year increased by 3.7% and averaged $ 16.4 thousand, according to research data from ContactRealEstate. In total, more than 800 transactions were concluded on the elite real estate market in 2012 (results of 2011 – 657 purchase and sale transactions).
It is interesting that if last year more than 60% of buyers of elite housing in the center of Moscow were officials, this year the number of civil servants among such buyers dropped sharply to 5%, said Anastasia Mogilatova, CEO of Welhome. However, experts note that this does not mean a decrease in the level of income of officials, most likely, in the light of the strengthening of the fight against corruption, they simply decided to more reliably hide their acquisitions. This is confirmed by the fact that among the buyers of “elite” in 2012, almost 10% are non-working pensioners. The highest demand was for elite real estate in Khamovniki, Ostozhenka, Tverskoy and Presnensky districts of the capital.
Sviblovo, Shchukino and Pokrovskoye-Streshnevo were recognized as the cheapest areas of Moscow in December 2012, the price of one square meter here was set at 5.1 thousand dollars. For comparison: in January of the outgoing year, the most inexpensive area of the capital was Strogino – 4.9 thousand dollars per “square”. However, over the year, the cost per square meter in this area increased to 5.3 thousand dollars, which allowed Strogino to rise sharply in the ranking of Moscow districts.
The most interesting new buildings – 2012
In total, more than 1.1 million square meters of housing were built in the capital during the current year. This is almost 20% less than in 2011.
In the rating of the most inexpensive new buildings in the capital in the outgoing year were ZhKK “Vanil” located in the Southern Administrative District, in Moskvorechye-Saburovo, “Tsaritsyno” – Biryulyovo Vostochnoye, RC “Residential House MPI” – Babushkinsky District, “Zeleny Bereg” – Chertanovo Central , as well as Zagorie – also Biryulyovo Vostochnoye.
The residential complex “Tsaritsyno” also became the largest new building in Moscow, the average cost of apartments here was set at 98 thousand rubles (about 3.2 thousand dollars) per “square”.
We have already written about the most outstanding and interesting new buildings in the capital, so I would only like to note that during 2012, 71 residential buildings were put into operation in “Old” Moscow. The average price of one square meter in Moscow new buildings for the year increased by 9% and was set at 171 thousand rubles (about 5.6 thousand dollars). The average price somewhat overpriced in comparison with the most affordable offers was formed due to the high prices for new buildings in Ostozhenka and Khamovniki. Here, for one square meter, they often ask for at least 20 thousand dollars, and in some elite club-type houses – more than 30-40 thousand dollars.
The outgoing year ends with a tangible increase in the volume of issued mortgage loans, which in comparison with 2011 increased by 30%. However, mortgages for 2012 have become more expensive. If in the previous year banks on average issued mortgage loans at 12.5-13% per annum, then in 2012 this figure increased to 13.5-14%.
And at the end of the year, many banking institutions, in particular Sberbank, already announced that next year rates will rise again and may reach, according to experts, 15% per annum.
Banks were more willing to issue mortgage loans for ready-made apartments in the secondary market, it is more difficult to get a mortgage for housing in an unfinished residential complex. And the rates in this case are higher by 1-3%, and the requirements for borrowers are stricter. However, among the many offers, you can find very profitable ones. If the bank is actively cooperating with the developer, as in the case of the residential complex “Gorki-8”, then the mortgage rate can be reduced to 9-10% per annum. Such offers, of course, are rare, the choice of objects in this case is limited, but the rates are much more attractive than the average on the mortgage market.
The most significant event of the outgoing year was, of course, the annexation of the territories of the so-called “New” Moscow to the capital. Two new districts appeared in the city – Novomoskovsky and Troitsky, and broad prospects for the development of fairly large territories opened up for the developers.
According to the company “Azbuka Housing”, in 2012 the average cost per square meter in “New” Moscow increased by 6.3% and currently stands at 83 thousand rubles (about 2.7 thousand dollars). The rate of rise in prices turned out to be less than predicted by realtors at the beginning of the year, predicting a sharp increase in demand for apartments in the newly created administrative districts.
If in the historical part of the city the closer the new building is to the Moscow Ring Road, the cheaper the price per square meter, then in “New” Moscow the situation is the opposite – they are located on “opposite sides of the barricades” and the value of real estate here increases sharply as it approaches the Moscow Ring Road.
Experts call the residential complex “Moscow A101”, where a one-room apartment can be purchased for three million rubles, the residential complex “New Vatutinki” and the residential complex “Prestige” as the most affordable new buildings of “New” Moscow. Residential complex “Vatutinki” is also called the most ambitious project in the newly annexed territories – here more than 1.6 thousand apartments are presented to the attention of buyers. “Vatutinki” is a whole microdistrict just 14 kilometers from the Moscow Ring Road, with two schools and three kindergartens.
The average cost of one square meter in the secondary market of “New” Moscow today reaches 96 thousand rubles, which is an average of 17.4% more than in the Moscow region, according to a study by the company “Peresvet-Invest”. So the accession to the capital on the real estate market of these territories, of course, had.
So, 2012 for Moscow real estate turned out to be on the whole quite stable and calm, without fluctuations and sharp jumps in prices. Demand has grown, the number of offers of both the primary and secondary markets has increased, the cost of all categories of residential real estate has slightly increased. On average, the price for Moscow square meters increased by 1.5-2% monthly. The most noticeable jump in prices was recorded in October, but in the summer the market experienced a seasonal calm as always.
Of the most interesting points, again, I would like to note an increase in the sale and purchase of luxury apartments, an increased interest in multi-room apartments, as well as a tangible increase in the volume of mortgage loans.
According to realtors, buyers are increasingly interested in three-room apartments, which last year clearly lost to more compact residential areas in terms of the number of transactions. But interest in studio apartments and tiny “odnushki”, on the contrary, has decreased.
Buyers increasingly prefer to buy apartments in monolithic or panel buildings, and too expensive “stalinkas” today can be called outsiders of the market – interest in them has noticeably decreased.
In 2012, the authorities failed to solve the problem with defrauded equity holders – the situation in this area is still not developing in the best way for co-investors, and the current laws cannot protect their interests. Many experts call the proposal to introduce compulsory insurance of equity premiums on housing as an attempt to “shift budget costs onto the shoulders of insurance companies” and predict that the new law will lead to an increase in the cost of apartments in new buildings.
Forecasts for the future
Experts unanimously promise that next year there will be no sharp changes in the situation in the capital’s real estate market.
Mortgage rates, despite recent complaints from the president, who noted that mortgage loans are not available for most Russians, will continue to rise, said Andrei Vladykin, head of the mortgage and loans department at NDV Real Estate. There are no prerequisites for a decrease in mortgage rates, so one should not expect better offers from banks.
An increase in rates to 15% will undoubtedly lead to a decrease in demand for real estate – not all buyers will be ready to obtain a mortgage loan on such terms. In addition, if mortgage rates reach 19% (and there are such pessimistic forecasts), then most of the potential buyers of real estate will prefer to get loans in foreign currency. Interest rates on mortgage loans in dollars are likely to remain at the level of 9-10% per annum. However, a mortgage in dollars is issued, firstly, for a period of up to 15 years, and secondly – almost always only for secondary housing.
“New” Moscow will begin to be actively developed by developers. According to Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of the capital, massive development is expected in areas located in the immediate vicinity of the Moscow Ring Road. In general, the authorities have already issued permits for the construction of at least 30 million square meters of housing in “New” Moscow, so that the Novomoskovsk and Troitsky districts are definitely waiting for a construction boom. However, as Sergei Sobyanin promised, a zone of low-rise buildings will appear around Troitsk, and areas remote from the city will become natural zones, squares and parks.
It is expected that in 2013 housing in the capital will rise in price at the same rate of inflation, that is, adding 0.5-1-2% monthly, which will ultimately lead to an increase in prices by 7-10% per year.
Contrary to the predictions of some analysts, a new financial crisis did not break out in 2012, and sharp shocks are not expected in 2013. Real estate prices in dollars may even go down, which will be facilitated by a decrease in demand. In the near future, experts predict an excess of supply on the market over demand – there are no prerequisites for an increase in household incomes, and in light of the increase in mortgage rates, the vast majority of Russians have nowhere to borrow funds to buy apartments in the capital. So one should not expect much activity from buyers, the summer of 2013 may become a completely “dead” season, and during periods of waiting for changes in the economy or after negative news from the political arena, demand may decline to zero, predicts Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center “ IRN.RU Real Estate Market Indicators “.
Other innovations that will have an impact on the real estate market in 2013 include the introduction of a tax on luxury promised by Vladimir Putin, including on luxury apartments. It is not yet known what the rate of this tax will be, but it seems that the demand for expensive apartments in the center of the capital will not decrease anyway.
In addition, the revaluation of the cadastral value of land in Moscow will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the value of real estate – developers will now pay on average 1.5 times more for land plots..
The authorities will continue to demolish dilapidated five-story buildings: in 2012, only 30 such houses were demolished, and in the future it is planned to resettle and demolish at least 88 five-story buildings in different districts of the capital.
The price of real estate in “New” Moscow will continue to grow and the gap from the rest of the Moscow region will become more and more tangible. In the secondary market of new metropolitan districts, the cost of one square meter will exceed 100 thousand rubles, in the primary market it will come close to this mark.
The mayor’s office will also continue to repair outgoing highways and build new traffic interchanges, will continue to actively fight traffic jams, and new metro stations will open in Moscow. How this will affect the real estate market of the capital – the already so close 2013 will show, the results of which we will also summarize in 12 months. Holiday greetings!